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Don't get too worried about deflation
Investors have been waiting all year for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge stronger US growth by raising rates.Then, a funny thing happened: market inflation expectations plunged.Does this mean...
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Let's assume you came into a ton of money at a time when the stock market was...
Receiving a windfall can be wonderful—and provoke enormous anxiety.In this hypothetical case study based on client experience, we look at how Ira, who was 60 years old in 1999 when he inherited $7...
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Revenue will be king for stocks in 2016
US markets are facing complex conditions. Stocks have been volatile. An interest-rate hike looms. Corporate profit margins have likely peaked. So what’s the right investing strategy for 2016?In this...
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There are some silver linings in China's industrial slowdown
China’s new Five-Year Plan reinforces the government’s pro-growth and reformist credentials. While this may not be enough in itself to reassure worried investors, we see some fundamental trends which...
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Here's why rate hikes won't hurt home prices
The long-anticipated rate hike by the US Fed has intensified concerns that the move will be a drag on the ongoing housing recovery. We think that’s unlikely.But it’s worth digging a bit deeper into...
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The drop in commodity prices is good news for most of high yield
The plunge in commodity prices is bad for energy- and metals-sector high-yield bonds. But it’s positive for the majority of issuers. That’s why we expect only a modest rise in the average default rate...
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'Mobile money' is booming in developing countries
With a simple cellphone text, a dairy farmer in a remote African village can receive cash for the milk he sells, pay his farmhands and buy supplies. It’s called mobile money and it’s reshaping...
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A recession still appears unlikely
The severe equity sell-off has raised concerns of recession in the US economy. Continued market disorder would pose a risk to the expansion at some point, but key indicators today suggest the growth...
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Here's a look at the vital signs of Europe's banks
European banks are once again facing fears of a meltdown. While current risks require careful scrutiny, a thorough checkup suggests that relatively healthy lenders can be found in the market today.It’s...
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Canadian bond investors should know these 5 things
From concerns about market liquidity to investing in clean energy, we answer the questions Canadian bond investors have been asking.Is liquidity a challenge or an opportunity? It can be both.Market...
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Ignore these 5 myths about emerging markets
Investors are fleeing emerging equities en masse. We think they need a new playbook. Great investments can still be found across the developing world—just not in the usual places.Macro conditions are a...
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The spike in Chinese lending might not be the red flag everyone thinks
Lending in China has jumped massively, startling already rattled investors and intensifying fears that the country’s financial system could be close to collapse. While these concerns are...
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Here's what legendary Alabama football coach Bear Bryant can teach you about...
Legendary coach Bear Bryant once said, “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.” It was a winning formula for Bryant’s college football team. It also holds the secret to success for the...
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This might be the only way out for Puerto Rico
A year ago, many people asked us if Puerto Rico’s debt was a good investment. Our answer now, as it was then, is “no.” For investors with strategies that can include high yield, it’s “not yet.”Puerto...
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Italy's 'No' vote is the death knell for structural reforms
Markets have responded calmly to Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s resignation following his decisive referendum defeat. But this result effectively sounds the death knell for reform momentum—and...
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Capital spending by US corporations could break out in 2017
Capital spending, which slowed sharply this year, may be poised for a rebound in 2017. That could be good news for certain cyclical sectors—provided governments make good on their plans to boost fiscal...
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Junk bonds can cause pain even if they don't default
In the high-yield market, it’s no secret that the lower a bond’s quality, the higher its risk of default. Here’s something that isn’t so well understood: low-quality bonds can damage a portfolio even...
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An unlikely French election outcome could plunge Europe into crisis
We think there’s only a modest chance that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win France’s presidential election. But a Le Pen presidency would rock Europe to its core, so it’s the biggest risk on...
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Here's how you can protect your retirement portfolio from inflation
For decades, there were two things that workers saving for retirement could count on: falling interest rates and low inflation. Change may be afoot. We think target-date funds should take...
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Both credit risk and interest rate risk should be critical to investors
Investors often ask us which of the two primary bond market risks—interest rate or credit—they should focus on in 2017. Our answer? Both of them—and the interaction between the two.Fixed-income...
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